Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-29 23.237206 27.847806 32.917734 38.877831 45.662766 53.116404 61.892986
2025-07-06 15.243971 20.930660 27.842462 36.737890 47.749717 60.797700 77.279155
2025-07-13 12.028180 18.340267 26.611027 37.971933 52.875500 71.450351 96.004540
2025-07-20 9.800066 16.387492 25.596353 38.951645 57.313340 81.129129 113.735856
2025-07-27 8.278389 15.044927 25.061811 40.283387 62.051682 91.226733 132.319664
2025-08-03 7.022627 13.818573 24.433810 41.267824 66.205317 100.604576 150.260171
2025-08-10 5.699316 12.198681 22.932727 40.707349 67.975715 106.663516 163.847008
2025-08-17 4.831442 11.174443 22.192063 41.146735 71.120829 114.681375 180.365247
2025-08-24 4.016453 10.069676 21.139816 40.925896 73.160335 121.108065 194.802615
2025-08-31 3.182224 8.733385 19.476854 39.482735 73.115138 124.367354 204.705504
2025-09-07 2.752069 8.142340 19.067104 40.086655 76.304291 132.539749 222.028559
2025-09-14 2.224476 7.201100 17.849068 39.120916 76.809562 136.568375 233.267289
2025-09-21 1.943802 6.821769 17.767915 40.355006 81.331346 147.454523 255.948889
2025-09-28 1.427914 5.680044 15.935049 38.132596 79.808150 148.774069 264.186317
2025-10-05 1.248094 5.405646 15.922682 39.402316 84.457083 160.202726 288.525182
2025-10-12 1.078807 5.104579 15.795157 40.411009 88.672828 171.072196 312.337642
2025-10-19 0.952221 4.896283 15.848774 41.782000 93.612446 183.321905 338.737406
2025-10-26 0.826131 4.641747 15.743766 42.795279 97.923706 194.661150 364.013884
2025-11-02 0.657585 4.152169 14.947721 42.218401 99.153206 200.762741 380.931944
2025-11-09 0.552989 3.866270 14.635998 42.670649 102.374012 210.399325 403.932721
2025-11-16 0.446154 3.510342 14.058479 42.443349 104.217020 217.663509 423.178858
2025-11-23 0.330236 3.027345 13.002476 40.957781 103.406121 220.144756 434.423763
2025-11-30 0.278656 2.847660 12.829548 41.579486 106.927009 230.520982 459.344022